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Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Near-Earth Objects, Part Seven

Impact Risks 
As of April 30, 2012

The following table lists potential future Earth impact events that the JPL Sentry System has detected based on currently available observations. Click on the object designation to go to a page with full details on that object.

Sentry is a highly automated collision monitoring system that continually scans the most current asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100 years. Whenever a potential impact is detected it will be analyzed and the results immediately published here, except in unusual cases where an IAU Technical Review is underway.

It is normal that, as additional observations become available, objects will disappear from this table whenever there are no longer any potential impact detections. For this reason we maintain a list of removed objects with the date of removal.


Table Legend

Coloration
The color of the table entries gives a rough interpretation of the severity of the threat. Small objects are not likely to cause significant damage in the event of an impact, although impact damage does depend heavily upon the specific (and usually unknown) physical properties of the object in question.
Small ObjectsTorino Scale Colors
Estimated diameter 50 meters or less.012,3,45,6,78,9,10

Object Designation
Temporary designation or permanent number for this object. Assigned by the Minor Planet Center.
Year Range
Time span over which impacts have been detected. Typically, searches are conducted 100 years into the future.
Potential Impacts
The number of dynamically distinct potential impacts that have been detected by Sentry. There can be several qualitatively unique pathways to impact in a given year, e.g., some with an extra revolutions around the sun, others deflected to impact by an earlier planetary encounter.
Impact Prob. (cum.)
The sum of the impact probabilities from all detected potential impacts.
Vinfinity
The velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth, assuming a massless Earth.
H
Absolute Magnitude is an intrinsic measure of brightness. It is the apparent magnitude of the object when it is 1 AU from both the sun and the observer, and at full phase for the observer.
Est. Diam.
The estimated diameter of the asteroid. This is an estimate based on the absolute magnitude, usually assuming a uniform spherical body with visual albedo pV = 0.154 (in accordance with the Palermo Scale) but sometimes using actual measured values if these are available. Since the albedo is rarely known for objects on this page, the diameter estimate should be considered only approximate, but in most cases will be accurate to within a factor of two.
Palermo Scale (cum.) & (max.)
The cumulative and maximum hazard ratings according to the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale.
Torino Scale (max.)
The maximum detected hazard rating using the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. According to this ten-point scale, a rating of zero indicates the event has "no likely consequences." A Torino Scale rating of 1 indicates an event that "merits careful monitoring." Even higher ratings indicate that progressively more concern is warranted. The Torino Scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future.



405 NEAs: Last Updated April 30, 2012
Sorted by Palermo Scale (cum.)

Recently Observed Objects
(within past 60 days)

Object
Designation
Year
Range
Potential
Impacts
Impact
Prob.
(cum.)
Vinfinity
(km/s)
H
(mag)
Est.
Diam.
(km)
Palermo
Scale
(cum.)
Palermo
Scale
(max.)
Torino
Scale
(max.)
2012 DA142020-2082733.1e-046.1424.40.045-3.24-3.820
2012 HG82030-203016.7e-0823.5319.80.370-3.92-3.920
2012 HB252016-2090132.5e-059.5224.80.037-3.92-4.230
2012 DW602083-2104121.6e-045.3926.50.017-4.87-5.120
2012 ES102054-206461.3e-0624.3623.70.061-4.88-5.180
2012 EK52070-2111133.0e-0515.1325.50.026-4.89-5.170
2012 DJ542068-2112251.8e-045.4328.50.007-5.75-5.990
2012 HG22053-205671.4e-053.3227.00.014-5.96-6.080
2012 EC2111-211113.5e-073.0823.40.071-6.22-6.220
2012 EP102063-2111449.2e-052.8029.20.005-6.48-6.760
2012 HJ312059-2109123.9e-0811.9724.40.045-7.14-7.330
2012 HP132084-209233.7e-0812.9624.20.048-7.22-7.480
2012 HE312094-209411.1e-0710.6025.70.024-7.57-7.570
2012 EZ12079-210731.9e-0713.6128.80.006-8.69-8.920
2012 GD2036-203616.0e-108.7426.90.014-9.91-9.910


Objects Not Recently Observed

Object
Designation
Year
Range
Potential
Impacts
Impact
Prob.
(cum.)
Vinfinity
(km/s)
H
(mag)
Est.
Diam.
(km)
Palermo
Scale
(cum.)
Palermo
Scale
(max.)
Torino
Scale
(max.)
2011 AG52040-204742.0e-039.5521.90.140-1.00-1.011
101955 1999 RQ362169-219987.1e-046.3620.70.560-1.12-1.52n/a
2007 VK1842048-205745.7e-0415.6322.00.130-1.56-1.571
2009 FD2185-219021.9e-0315.8722.10.130-1.76-1.80n/a
1994 WR122054-21091299.4e-059.8322.10.130-2.83-3.720
2011 BT152074-2109457.9e-056.9021.70.150-2.88-3.580
1979 XB2056-210233.8e-0724.3518.50.681-2.94-3.010
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)2036-210367.4e-065.8719.70.270-2.97-3.080
2008 CK702030-203013.7e-0415.2925.20.031-2.99-2.990
2000 SG3442069-2094211.4e-031.3824.80.037-3.10-3.290
2007 FT32013-21101271.2e-0617.0520.00.340-3.12-3.740
2007 UW12048-2110911.2e-044.7222.70.097-3.20-3.980
2006 QV892019-2068162.1e-045.1725.30.030-3.21-3.220
2010 RF122095-2111326.5e-025.1028.40.007-3.23-3.230
2007 RY192074-2109445.5e-059.4822.50.110-3.33-3.960
2009 JF12022-202213.5e-0423.9227.10.013-3.47-3.470
2008 UB72044-2100375.5e-0518.4823.90.057-3.56-3.920
2012 BU612031-2099172.1e-0623.3521.10.210-3.59-3.910
2005 QK762030-208386.9e-0519.6725.20.031-3.69-3.880
1994 GK2051-206746.8e-0514.8824.20.048-3.71-3.720
2010 AU1182020-2106371.7e-0825.2317.90.894-3.74-4.360
2010 CA2022-202221.8e-0514.7024.50.043-3.74-3.740
2009 BE2061-2111299.0e-0411.4626.10.020-3.75-4.020
2008 JL32027-2110161.0e-048.4325.30.029-3.75-3.750
2011 UZ2552066-207222.9e-0513.3123.30.075-3.75-3.750
2000 SB452074-21081011.4e-047.5324.30.046-3.83-4.290
2008 UV992013-2110329.9e-0815.9419.60.400-3.83-4.080
2008 CC712034-2082291.2e-048.1024.90.036-3.97-4.060
2006 JY262073-2110498.4e-032.9828.40.007-4.02-4.030
2011 XC22056-205614.9e-0620.7523.00.086-4.03-4.030
2008 EX52062-2090133.7e-059.9223.80.059-4.03-4.310
2005 ED2242018-206462.9e-0625.1924.00.054-4.03-4.260
2011 PU12063-2106171.8e-045.4425.10.033-4.11-4.460
2011 VG92086-210962.3e-0624.6622.20.120-4.13-4.420
2002 TX552089-209632.8e-0510.1523.60.063-4.15-4.180
2005 BS12016-204157.3e-0512.3627.30.012-4.17-4.170
2011 WL22098-209811.0e-0611.5920.70.240-4.19-4.190
2010 WC92027-2109174.0e-0612.6723.40.070-4.20-4.230
2010 XA682024-2106423.9e-0731.4521.70.150-4.21-4.850
2007 DX402035-2109283.1e-0515.5624.60.041-4.22-4.610
2011 BT592041-2096132.4e-0737.6021.30.180-4.26-4.420
2008 HJ2077-2110192.9e-047.5325.70.024-4.27-4.720
2008 AO1122021-2104762.5e-073.2420.20.310-4.27-5.120
2010 GM232087-2111296.0e-0513.4424.70.040-4.29-4.920
2001 CA212020-207344.0e-0930.7118.50.679-4.33-4.560
2006 DM632031-2100291.5e-0410.3726.70.015-4.36-4.670
2008 ST72074-2105203.2e-059.9724.10.052-4.37-4.710
2007 KO42015-21091811.6e-0613.4923.30.074-4.40-4.510
2001 BB162084-209947.2e-063.5422.60.100-4.41-4.750
2011 DU92043-205952.1e-048.7626.70.016-4.42-4.430
2011 UM1692100-2107195.4e-0513.9725.00.033-4.49-4.710
2004 BX1592014-202434.7e-1014.3417.21.200-4.50-4.640
2005 XA82069-2086247.5e-0512.0825.60.025-4.54-4.710
2010 CR52050-208774.8e-0822.8619.80.367-4.57-4.830
2008 PG12013-2110871.1e-077.4521.00.214-4.57-5.000
2011 EB742032-21082432.8e-047.5826.90.014-4.61-5.430
2002 VU172084-209952.3e-0513.6924.80.038-4.68-5.100
2012 BA772021-2100633.0e-0512.6025.90.023-4.70-5.320
2002 MN2070-2109104.9e-0610.3723.30.073-4.71-5.150
2007 WP32098-2109126.5e-0613.0323.50.067-4.72-5.050
2006 HF62068-2110229.6e-0616.4024.50.043-4.72-5.260
2010 JC1702021-21091505.3e-074.2422.10.130-4.72-5.500
2011 SO1892056-2090141.1e-0412.9926.50.017-4.73-5.070
2011 BL452050-2111514.7e-041.6827.20.013-4.75-4.920
2010 MY1122018-2107353.4e-0823.8220.70.250-4.75-5.290
2010 UK2068-2108132.3e-046.0826.80.014-4.76-4.770
2008 FF52060-206014.4e-0739.4723.10.081-4.79-4.790
2007 KE42026-209139.9e-0610.0725.20.031-4.80-4.840
2002 RB1822053-2110142.3e-0613.8922.80.092-4.80-5.070
2010 QG22051-207074.9e-0612.8924.20.048-4.81-4.840
2005 WG572029-2104122.0e-069.9123.60.063-4.82-4.890
2011 CU462020-21114192.2e-0516.0425.40.028-4.86-5.900
2011 ES42031-2107603.8e-057.7325.70.025-4.90-5.460
2011 OB262074-2109224.1e-0510.9925.50.027-4.93-5.390
2010 JH802074-209543.7e-0626.9024.50.042-4.95-4.960
2009 BR52059-207833.1e-0718.0622.10.130-5.00-5.240
2010 JH1102071-210248.4e-058.0826.30.019-5.01-5.160
2009 WP62067-2109483.9e-0525.3526.80.015-5.03-5.300
2006 JE2094-210742.0e-0626.3623.80.058-5.03-5.070
2006 SC2043-210981.0e-0512.2225.20.031-5.03-5.100
2009 TH82068-210041.3e-0513.0324.90.036-5.03-5.110
2010 XN692026-21111296.4e-057.2826.30.019-5.04-6.020
2008 TE2023-204734.1e-0511.8427.70.010-5.05-5.050
2008 DB2046-2111342.8e-056.9625.70.025-5.06-5.330
2010 XA732016-202541.1e-0914.9518.90.574-5.06-5.320
2008 KO2049-206131.6e-0623.4824.40.045-5.09-5.450
2012 AP102069-2111729.5e-053.5726.40.018-5.09-5.810
2004 GE22100-210941.5e-0720.5721.40.180-5.11-5.230
2004 PU422071-2105197.9e-0510.1126.80.015-5.17-5.690
2011 YV622078-208747.1e-0818.2021.00.210-5.17-5.200
2009 BF582055-2087211.6e-046.6827.20.012-5.18-5.380
2003 LN62061-207826.0e-063.9824.50.043-5.18-5.190
2007 CC272067-2105377.6e-0510.8726.90.014-5.20-5.680
2007 VE82062-206211.3e-059.0525.40.028-5.20-5.200
2009 FZ42013-21103193.3e-0610.1025.20.031-5.20-5.820
1999 RZ312056-205621.8e-068.2023.80.059-5.24-5.300
2001 GP22043-2107339.2e-052.5826.90.014-5.24-5.860
2008 EZ842072-210743.3e-057.9226.20.020-5.24-5.330
1996 TC12054-207558.8e-0724.0123.90.055-5.25-5.330
2011 AH52074-211152.5e-059.5025.90.022-5.26-5.590
2010 VW1942042-2108225.6e-057.3126.50.017-5.26-5.850
2006 CM102092-209211.1e-0722.3421.70.150-5.28-5.280
2009 TD172039-2093438.9e-056.5827.70.010-5.28-5.330
1994 GV2048-2110249.9e-058.1527.50.011-5.29-5.850
2005 VN52047-2110197.8e-056.5727.00.014-5.29-5.610
2007 DS72048-2107191.9e-0512.3925.80.023-5.29-5.520
2001 BA162033-211181.2e-054.9025.80.023-5.31-5.350
1995 CS2042-207393.1e-0624.9125.50.027-5.33-5.700
2010 XB732016-2110512.1e-075.9822.50.110-5.35-6.180
2010 VQ2034-2107481.2e-044.5827.70.010-5.35-5.950
2009 RR2098-2110161.4e-0512.9525.60.026-5.37-6.070
2011 CW462021-21111381.4e-0616.6324.70.039-5.38-5.750
2011 AM372044-21081201.1e-033.6629.70.004-5.41-5.750
2011 EU292126-212611.8e-0818.5019.80.370-5.41-5.41n/a
2010 KV72034-2111451.8e-055.4326.00.021-5.42-5.960
2011 SM1732058-208957.0e-0514.2427.80.009-5.42-5.450
2000 LG62075-2111318.7e-042.1129.00.005-5.44-5.900
2006 XP42107-210743.3e-065.7823.90.055-5.44-5.500
2008 YO22021-2109464.9e-0616.4025.20.031-5.44-6.000
2007 VH1892017-204662.0e-0718.1423.40.072-5.44-5.720
2005 TM1732012-21101338.3e-078.6824.10.051-5.46-6.310
2009 FJ2058-209443.6e-068.9424.90.036-5.47-5.520
2012 BY12043-207474.3e-0618.1825.80.024-5.48-5.720
2006 QN1112079-207911.2e-0610.5523.80.060-5.50-5.500
2010 GH72099-2111291.2e-045.0527.30.012-5.51-5.970
2002 TY592084-211021.2e-058.2425.40.028-5.52-5.530
2010 TW1492062-2107439.1e-0617.0525.90.023-5.53-6.040
2004 ME62017-2109491.4e-0711.9022.60.101-5.53-6.330
2012 BU12071-2112231.3e-048.9627.70.010-5.53-6.040
2008 VS42013-21102626.8e-077.0224.20.050-5.53-6.360
2007 UO62031-2096111.9e-0511.7127.30.012-5.53-5.810
2004 VM242069-2098118.3e-0612.8625.70.025-5.53-5.920
2010 DG772023-21111441.5e-062.3924.50.044-5.54-6.230
2006 CD2015-2092451.3e-0811.1221.00.211-5.54-6.090
2008 ST2078-210177.0e-053.2427.10.013-5.54-5.640
2011 AK372097-209715.8e-0611.8725.20.031-5.55-5.550
2006 BC82080-2111174.9e-0613.1825.10.032-5.56-6.210
2011 MX2059-2092213.0e-0512.2226.90.014-5.58-5.890
1999 SF102073-2109102.5e-064.7624.00.053-5.58-6.160
2010 JA432014-2109411.4e-0815.2721.60.160-5.58-5.910
2010 MZ1122029-21111492.1e-062.0325.10.035-5.59-6.620
2011 BU592075-2106141.7e-0511.3626.20.020-5.59-5.660
2005 AU32081-2111251.1e-0514.4126.00.022-5.59-6.350
2009 FG2022-2108226.4e-069.1225.50.027-5.60-5.990
2011 BG102051-207448.3e-0612.3026.30.019-5.60-5.850
2009 OW62080-208016.9e-066.6725.30.029-5.60-5.600
2011 EB2070-207732.9e-0510.3126.90.014-5.61-5.700
2011 TO2049-2088141.3e-058.5426.30.019-5.62-5.770
2008 LG22070-2108147.0e-064.6725.20.030-5.62-6.110
2008 CT12030-21111065.3e-0513.6827.60.010-5.63-6.080
2008 EM682012-21105684.8e-0616.6827.50.010-5.63-6.280
2009 WR522031-2110561.4e-045.4128.30.007-5.66-5.870
2011 SR52030-203013.7e-0926.1121.00.210-5.70-5.700
2007 EV2088-210453.9e-0610.5825.00.033-5.71-5.880
2007 HB152055-2107265.6e-056.3427.80.009-5.73-5.800
2010 UY72066-2110402.5e-043.8728.50.007-5.74-6.140
2010 XW582069-210663.3e-066.3224.70.039-5.74-5.800
2007 XZ92056-208941.5e-0613.0224.80.037-5.76-5.910
2005 SO12110-211075.1e-0612.0325.40.028-5.78-6.190
2012 BL142023-21111291.4e-0519.9428.20.008-5.79-6.160
2007 UN122073-2109323.0e-041.5728.70.006-5.81-6.520
1998 SH22097-209711.8e-0817.9920.90.230-5.81-5.810
2007 EO882073-211191.4e-0510.9626.40.018-5.82-6.250
2009 VA2025-203543.0e-058.2428.60.006-5.82-5.820
2009 CZ12058-207425.2e-0717.8024.40.044-5.83-5.960
2006 HX572045-209242.2e-0610.5325.20.031-5.83-5.850
2011 BF402083-208311.1e-0618.5024.80.037-5.84-5.840
2010 EN442015-2110262.0e-072.3826.70.018-5.84-5.970
2010 JL882057-2086181.1e-0514.8726.80.015-5.85-6.180
2009 WM12091-209111.2e-0814.1820.40.280-5.86-5.860
2011 CL502036-2111736.0e-053.5027.60.010-5.86-6.800
2012 BK142020-21035284.5e-053.7328.00.009-5.87-6.910
2005 NX552014-2065152.8e-0925.0521.90.141-5.88-6.330
2010 UJ2025-2093545.0e-062.6526.20.019-5.89-6.180
2009 TU2086-209552.0e-0515.1527.40.011-5.90-6.340
2010 HS202057-205712.3e-078.4823.30.073-5.91-5.910
2011 DV102093-209311.1e-0616.2724.80.038-5.92-5.920
2006 WZ1842071-2109249.5e-067.2726.10.021-5.92-6.720
2007 TL162074-2095127.1e-0611.4226.20.019-5.93-6.140
2001 SB1702089-209525.6e-0822.4922.40.110-5.93-6.200
2011 AY222051-2109231.9e-0512.9927.10.013-5.93-6.590
2007 YM2020-21091133.7e-068.2226.20.020-5.94-6.800
2010 XR2013-201312.0e-0719.9526.80.015-5.95-5.950
2011 WN692058-210964.0e-0623.0726.20.019-5.95-6.190
2011 DS2074-2109182.1e-056.5427.00.013-5.97-6.220
2007 UD62058-2102647.9e-055.9828.30.007-5.98-6.870
2009 JL22057-208553.5e-0612.8326.00.022-5.99-6.390
2008 EV842041-210627.7e-0712.9425.30.029-6.03-6.030
2002 UV362087-208711.2e-058.0626.70.016-6.03-6.030
2001 UD52107-210716.7e-0816.7322.40.110-6.04-6.040
2011 KF362022-210681.2e-0922.3220.40.280-6.04-6.660
2009 VZ392012-21107937.0e-066.2227.90.009-6.04-6.870
2006 WV292036-2110144.0e-0616.8126.50.017-6.08-6.750
2008 DA42091-210024.5e-0711.1223.90.056-6.08-6.240
2009 HC2095-211131.8e-063.7424.80.038-6.10-6.210
2012 CL172095-2112221.7e-0621.4925.70.024-6.10-6.660
2005 TH502031-2094213.3e-054.9228.00.009-6.10-6.550
2010 VO1392022-21101182.3e-0620.8126.50.017-6.11-7.110
2011 CF662013-21115381.4e-0511.1627.60.010-6.11-7.080
2004 VZ142076-210721.3e-0615.2525.30.030-6.12-6.360
2009 HW672046-207941.5e-0622.6626.10.020-6.13-6.280
2008 PK92045-205732.4e-0827.4223.10.081-6.14-6.270
2011 FQ62053-2104241.9e-0510.4927.70.010-6.17-6.280
2005 VL12031-2057165.0e-066.4526.70.015-6.17-6.430
2007 FY202085-210181.1e-069.7024.80.037-6.17-6.450
2008 YV322085-2107106.1e-068.7826.40.018-6.19-6.730
2011 BA602029-2110168.5e-0915.3022.00.139-6.19-6.390
2008 EA92063-208162.9e-051.2827.70.010-6.24-6.670
2010 UH2047-2111301.2e-056.7427.10.013-6.25-6.950
2005 TA2099-2110142.0e-054.8127.20.012-6.26-6.550
2006 SR1312071-2107262.9e-058.4628.00.009-6.26-7.020
2010 CS192104-210443.8e-056.8228.00.009-6.28-6.300
2009 TM82079-21101236.0e-057.9628.60.007-6.30-7.550
2007 TX222040-2089403.0e-058.9128.40.007-6.31-6.900
2007 DC2040-2108331.1e-056.7127.50.011-6.32-6.880
2010 NN2049-2110263.1e-057.7428.30.007-6.35-6.720
2010 TD2072-209152.8e-0618.8626.90.014-6.36-6.780
2008 KN112046-204613.8e-0813.8323.30.075-6.36-6.360
2008 XC12085-208821.5e-0711.6623.70.063-6.36-6.410
2004 FH2098-210734.1e-066.9726.10.020-6.36-6.510
2012 BA1022104-211236.0e-067.2426.50.017-6.38-6.390
2006 GU22060-2110481.9e-057.2927.80.009-6.39-6.820
2011 QF482067-206723.5e-0719.9225.30.030-6.40-6.510
2008 CB62093-210729.4e-067.4227.10.013-6.41-6.550
2010 HP202021-20711539.8e-068.8528.00.009-6.42-7.350
2010 NH2089-209221.4e-0610.2925.70.025-6.43-6.490
2008 VL2021-20933179.5e-069.6427.90.009-6.44-7.470
2010 TN552066-2107182.2e-0625.3827.00.014-6.45-6.910
1998 DK362027-2100175.6e-076.1925.00.034-6.45-6.480
2002 XV902101-210141.1e-067.6325.20.031-6.46-6.550
2005 EL702034-203411.5e-0835.5324.10.052-6.47-6.470
2007 SN62022-205921.5e-0718.4025.00.033-6.48-6.680
2001 YN22020-202013.6e-0818.4924.90.035-6.49-6.490
2005 UL62068-206822.1e-0711.9524.50.042-6.50-6.660
2010 WW82012-2106591.4e-075.2026.20.019-6.50-6.550
2011 UL1692057-207351.3e-059.3528.30.007-6.51-6.570
2009 FP322073-2104148.2e-0615.0727.80.010-6.51-6.930
2007 US512079-210263.9e-0615.3227.20.012-6.52-6.630
2009 TB2014-2082214.9e-0612.2829.10.005-6.53-6.980
2008 BC152072-209421.4e-0620.6426.60.016-6.55-6.710
1997 UA112073-207313.9e-0711.9625.10.032-6.56-6.560
2011 AZ362023-21101644.4e-077.9325.10.032-6.56-7.850
2003 UQ252093-209311.2e-0718.0124.20.049-6.58-6.580
2007 CS52094-211044.7e-075.0024.50.042-6.58-6.980
2012 CU2040-210051.3e-0610.9326.00.021-6.59-6.850
2006 WP12015-201725.0e-0718.0328.20.008-6.60-6.600
2008 VM2025-203133.4e-0510.2630.20.003-6.61-6.610
2004 XB452035-203513.3e-0717.0226.30.019-6.62-6.620
2009 WQ252094-209418.6e-0816.9423.90.055-6.63-6.630
2008 LD2054-2111494.3e-054.1328.90.006-6.65-7.390
2008 SH1482014-21101027.1e-079.9626.10.020-6.68-7.340
2008 UY912014-2107372.4e-0816.2024.60.041-6.69-7.030
1997 TC252096-209612.9e-079.8924.70.039-6.69-6.690
2009 WW72059-2108153.0e-058.1928.90.006-6.70-6.900
2006 BM82102-211064.7e-0714.8325.40.028-6.70-7.130
2010 FD2085-210421.1e-069.8026.00.021-6.70-6.740
2011 UC642093-2110157.4e-0614.0627.90.009-6.71-7.010
2006 SF2812017-21102848.7e-074.5226.20.020-6.71-7.870
2010 UR72079-208633.4e-0613.3227.40.011-6.72-7.050
2010 XQ2031-2111492.3e-079.7725.20.031-6.73-7.570
2006 UU172103-210741.8e-069.8026.40.018-6.74-7.030
2010 FN2082-209062.2e-066.8126.60.016-6.75-7.140
2012 BW132072-2111113.6e-0611.6727.20.012-6.77-7.140
2004 RU1092038-205355.4e-0712.9326.50.017-6.77-7.130
2008 GM22090-2110371.9e-054.6228.40.007-6.79-7.360
2005 CC372100-210012.8e-088.4522.70.099-6.79-6.790
2004 BN412086-209828.1e-077.5725.80.024-6.80-6.900
2009 YR2060-208777.9e-063.1228.00.009-6.82-7.280
2008 UA2022045-2108485.1e-052.3129.40.004-6.83-7.580
2010 TW542081-210775.8e-067.7827.50.010-6.83-7.060
2007 EZ252047-209731.9e-0720.7625.60.026-6.92-7.150
2008 TS102068-2109162.1e-053.1828.80.006-6.92-7.640
2011 BP402025-2106292.0e-073.4325.40.028-6.92-7.430
2002 GM52098-209812.3e-0919.6421.40.170-6.95-6.950
2009 EW2075-207515.9e-0712.8326.40.018-6.96-6.960
2007 EN882094-210438.9e-0712.1626.40.017-6.99-7.150
2010 RM802085-2111207.5e-065.3727.90.009-7.01-7.320
2006 HE22081-210331.3e-065.0226.50.017-7.01-7.390
2011 UE3052109-210912.2e-0915.9221.20.190-7.02-7.020
2008 UA922078-207812.0e-068.3827.30.012-7.03-7.030
2008 UW992093-209311.4e-078.5324.70.039-7.04-7.040
2011 FA232051-210456.5e-0614.3328.90.006-7.04-7.130
2008 XU22039-203911.1e-079.9325.60.026-7.05-7.050
2006 UQ2162074-210643.2e-063.7427.30.012-7.06-7.260
2010 MA1132075-207625.4e-095.8721.90.140-7.06-7.130
2000 UK112099-209912.3e-076.3025.00.034-7.06-7.060
2010 VR1392017-2106261.7e-075.1826.70.015-7.07-7.280
1991 BA2023-209699.8e-0718.2728.60.006-7.08-7.150
2001 QJ962032-203215.1e-1026.6922.00.130-7.08-7.080
2010 KJ372024-2084101.4e-086.6923.90.056-7.09-7.220
2011 BH402023-2109648.1e-085.4825.10.033-7.10-7.780
2008 XK2013-2101714.3e-0712.5927.30.012-7.14-7.620
2011 CF222031-2085681.8e-0519.2930.90.002-7.16-7.680
2003 WT1532044-2109253.8e-064.4228.10.008-7.20-7.790
2008 YD32032-2107302.7e-079.3426.20.020-7.20-7.760
2005 VP2053-2076118.3e-0812.8425.50.027-7.23-7.580
2006 UJ1852052-210571.4e-0615.4427.90.009-7.24-7.760
2011 YW102025-204224.6e-0913.8724.00.054-7.24-7.260
2007 UT32062-207651.9e-079.0525.70.024-7.24-7.370
2008 WO22092-209552.6e-056.1129.80.004-7.27-7.330
2010 XC2013-21101571.7e-064.0429.00.005-7.28-7.500
2006 DO622052-2095112.3e-0610.8428.30.007-7.28-7.580
2003 UM32022-2110801.5e-0613.6128.00.008-7.29-8.070
2001 UO2020-202012.4e-0916.2824.10.051-7.31-7.310
2004 DA532111-211122.9e-069.3527.90.009-7.32-7.390
2010 VN12050-206641.7e-0610.9928.30.007-7.33-7.490
2011 YC402028-205063.4e-0610.9329.70.004-7.33-7.410
2005 UA12036-203618.1e-0814.6826.40.018-7.35-7.350
2009 FZ102111-211121.4e-0713.0925.50.027-7.36-7.440
2003 DW102046-205821.5e-077.8226.10.020-7.37-7.540
2007 EE1262065-209223.9e-0831.9525.60.026-7.38-7.380
2010 RX302063-207325.8e-079.8527.20.012-7.38-7.400
2008 HC382029-208636.1e-0814.0526.10.020-7.38-7.440
2011 DX42012-2111231.6e-0717.0726.70.015-7.39-7.660
2007 EH262103-210311.6e-0820.1924.20.049-7.44-7.440
2008 CJ2106-210611.1e-068.0627.30.012-7.44-7.440
2011 EC2051-205117.7e-086.8425.60.026-7.44-7.440
2007 XB232078-209248.3e-074.5727.10.013-7.44-7.700
2007 FP32059-2111102.8e-069.6628.40.007-7.47-7.790
2011 UD212105-210514.9e-061.2728.50.007-7.51-7.510
2007 VD82028-2103325.9e-0712.7027.70.010-7.52-7.910
2010 VP1392012-21091182.1e-063.4328.70.006-7.52-8.390
2006 BF562092-211093.4e-0626.1429.60.004-7.54-7.760
2010 CK192089-210741.8e-065.0127.90.009-7.55-7.980
2009 ST1712066-206612.7e-079.8326.80.015-7.55-7.550
2001 AV432066-206922.7e-083.7124.40.046-7.55-7.580
2011 UR632110-211031.2e-0712.5725.70.024-7.56-7.770
2005 GQ332051-208254.4e-0921.0523.70.062-7.56-7.940
2008 CM742076-210292.1e-064.0828.00.008-7.57-8.170
2011 EL402073-207311.2e-0716.9726.50.017-7.58-7.580
2007 BB2076-207611.2e-064.4427.80.009-7.59-7.590
2010 XU2093-209318.3e-086.2425.40.029-7.63-7.630
2011 HP42033-206832.0e-0714.3527.50.011-7.64-7.650
2006 YE2082-209537.1e-075.9627.30.012-7.65-7.940
2011 EM402065-2109158.9e-0710.6928.00.009-7.68-8.330
2012 BN1232074-211044.5e-0910.1223.20.078-7.68-8.070
2000 SZ1622070-209124.4e-074.1427.10.013-7.69-7.810
2011 AD32027-2111321.2e-0713.0426.60.016-7.70-8.390
2003 YS702107-210714.6e-063.1628.80.006-7.70-7.700
2012 CS462019-21091204.0e-076.0627.80.009-7.71-8.450
2008 OO82109-210916.1e-088.3225.20.031-7.72-7.720
2008 HU42075-207621.5e-060.9228.20.008-7.73-7.880
2009 MU2096-209611.5e-0813.2724.50.042-7.80-7.800
2006 XZ22074-209722.2e-079.0627.10.013-7.86-7.890
2009 VT12046-208132.0e-066.9829.60.004-7.93-8.060
2011 AZ222034-211045.6e-0712.5028.60.006-7.94-8.140
2007 EE262086-208618.7e-084.6026.10.021-7.95-7.950
2008 EF852084-211041.7e-079.5326.70.016-7.95-8.000
2011 SE1912098-209811.6e-0814.5725.10.032-7.99-7.990
2008 YC32086-210353.3e-086.2525.40.029-8.03-8.130
2005 UC32109-210912.3e-077.8927.10.013-8.05-8.050
2010 GV232096-210524.0e-075.4227.60.010-8.10-8.280
2002 CB192066-206614.7e-0915.7524.80.038-8.13-8.130
2011 YC632034-204721.4e-0718.8229.00.005-8.25-8.340
2010 XB2027-202921.8e-0719.6729.60.004-8.26-8.500
2008 YC292095-209521.2e-0812.2825.30.030-8.26-8.370
2006 BO72060-206727.4e-079.8429.30.005-8.29-8.460
2008 GY212045-2098131.1e-0711.1427.60.010-8.30-8.830
2006 WK1302103-210312.6e-1020.7422.40.110-8.32-8.320
2011 SE582052-205525.8e-0815.6927.60.010-8.32-8.430
2001 VM52042-204213.0e-099.1824.90.036-8.34-8.340
2008 BN162067-208329.8e-0918.6425.90.022-8.39-8.400
2006 WV2082-208214.8e-0814.6027.10.013-8.40-8.400
2009 WQ522037-203714.9e-0814.7628.20.008-8.46-8.460
2008 JD332016-2095341.1e-086.7627.30.015-8.49-9.010
2009 FQ322070-210455.2e-084.7526.80.015-8.52-8.950
2006 UC642077-209432.2e-0920.2625.00.034-8.56-8.820
2011 FQ162105-210831.2e-077.9127.70.010-8.58-8.600
2009 WJ62049-205622.4e-0818.1627.60.010-8.59-8.620
2008 GF12080-208011.0e-0714.6128.30.007-8.61-8.610
2009 MG12079-207917.8e-1017.4724.10.052-8.63-8.630
2005 TK502054-210631.6e-0720.6728.80.006-8.64-8.690
2012 CQ462040-208431.3e-0813.1127.20.012-8.66-8.670
2008 WJ142036-2105121.1e-0810.7026.60.016-8.68-9.280
2010 XP2026-2085181.9e-086.9526.90.014-8.69-9.340
2011 BQ502082-210722.5e-073.1328.30.007-8.72-8.740
2008 KT2092-209821.6e-072.9928.20.008-8.80-8.930
2002 AO112082-208212.1e-108.2422.70.097-8.85-8.850
2009 QR2090-209013.6e-085.1027.30.012-8.96-8.960
2010 UE2032-204426.8e-0816.0729.60.004-8.97-9.260
2007 WW32037-203711.6e-1010.2823.80.060-8.98-8.980
2008 JL242091-209113.5e-072.7229.60.004-9.10-9.100
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2009 WZ532084-208412.6e-1018.9724.10.052-9.10-9.100
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The Torino Impact Hazard Scale
Assessing Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Predictions In The 21st Century

No Hazard
(White Zone)
0
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
Normal
(Green Zone)
1
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
Meriting Attention by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone)
2
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
3
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
4
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
Threatening
(Orange Zone)
5
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
6
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
7
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.
Certain Collisions
(Red Zone)
8
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.
9
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.
10
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.
Note: the Torino Scale was recently revised according to this recent publication:
Morrison, D., Chapman, C. R., Steel, D., and Binzel R. P. "Impacts and the Public: Communicating the Nature of the Impact Hazard" In Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids,(M.J.S. Belton, T.H. Morgan, N.H. Samarasinha and D.K. Yeomans, Eds), Cambridge University Press, 2004.


Revised asteroid scale aids understanding of impact risk
Elizabeth A. Thomson, News Office
April 12, 2005

Astronomers led by an MIT professor have revised the scale used to assess the threat of asteroids and comets colliding with Earth to better communicate those risks with the public.

The overall goal is to provide easy-to-understand information to assuage concerns about a potential doomsday collision with our planet.

The Torino scale, a risk-assessment system similar to the Richter scale used for earthquakes, was adopted by a working group of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 1999 at a meeting in Torino, Italy. On the scale, zero means virtually no chance of collision, while 10 means certain global catastrophe.

"The idea was to create a simple system conveying clear, consistent information about near-Earth objects [NEOs]," or asteroids and comets that appear to be heading toward the planet, said Richard Binzel, a professor in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and the creator of the scale.
Some critics, however, said that the original Torino scale was actually scaring people, "the opposite of what was intended," said Binzel. Hence the revisions.

"For a newly discovered NEO, the revised scale still ranks the impact hazard from 0 to 10, and the calculations that determine the hazard level are still exactly the same," Binzel said. The difference is that the wording for each category now better describes the attention or response merited for each.

For example, in the original scale NEOs of level 2-4 were described as "meriting concern." The revised scale describes objects with those rankings as "meriting attention by astronomers"--not necessarily the public.

Equally important in the revisions, says Binzel, "is the emphasis on how continued tracking of an object is almost always likely to reduce the hazard level to 0, once sufficient data are obtained." The general process of classifying NEO hazards is roughly analogous to hurricane forecasting. Predictions of a storm's path are updated as more and more tracking data are collected.

According to Dr. Donald K. Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office, "The revisions in the Torino Scale should go a long way toward assuring the public that while we cannot always immediately rule out Earth impacts for recently discovered near-Earth objects, additional observations will almost certainly allow us to do so."

The highest Torino level ever given an asteroid was a 4 last December, with a 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. And after extended tracking of the asteroid's orbit, it was reclassified to level 1, effectively removing any chance of collision, "the outcome emphasized by level 4 as being most likely," Binzel said.
"It is just a matter of the scale becoming more well known and understood. Just as there is little or no reason for public concern over a magnitude 3 earthquake, there is little cause for public attention for NEO close encounters having low values on the Torino scale." He notes that an object must reach level 8 on the scale before there is a certainty of an impact capable of causing even localized destruction.

The Torino scale was developed because astronomers are spotting more and more NEOs through projects like the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research project at MIT's Lincoln Laboratory. "There's no increase in the number of asteroids out there or how frequently they encounter our planet. What's changed is our awareness of them," Binzel notes.

As a result, astronomers debated whether they should keep potential NEO collisions secret or "be completely open with what we know when we know it," Binzel said. The IAU working group, of which Binzel is secretary, resoundingly decided on the latter.

The revised wording of the scale was published last fall in a chapter of "Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids" (Cambridge University Press). The revisions were undertaken through consultation with astronomers worldwide for nearly a year before being published.

Binzel concludes that "the chance of something hitting the Earth and having a major impact is very unlikely. But although unlikely, it is still not impossible. The only way to be certain of no asteroid impacts in the forecast is to keep looking."


To be continued...

NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Program coordinates NASA-sponsored efforts to detect, track and characterize potentially hazardous asteroids and comets that could approach the Earth. To learn more, visit the home page of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

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